With second stage of peace deal on the horizon, the Israel-Hamas ceasefire is increasingly fragile

Human Rights Research Center
13 minutes ago
5 min read

December 29, 2025

HRRC implores the international community and mediating parties to safeguard the fragile ceasefire in Gaza, urging both Israel and Hamas to prioritize the preservation of civilian life and the unimpeded delivery of humanitarian aid.

People gather during a search and rescue operation at the site of a house that was partially destroyed during the war and collapsed on Tuesday, at Shati refugee camp in Gaza City, December 16, 2025. [Image credit: REUTERS/Mahmoud Issa]

On Wednesday, December 25th, tensions between Israel and Hamas, which have been witnessing a fragile ceasefire following the devastating 2-year Gaza War, spiked once again. The Israeli Defense Force (IDF) said that an explosive was detonated against a Namer armored personnel carrier in Rafah’s al-Janina neighborhood, an area in southern Gaza under Israeli military control, in the process injuring an Israeli officer. The carrier was there for an operational activity to dismantle what the IDF described as “terrorist infrastructure.” The officer was subsequently transported to Soroka Medical Center in Be'er Sheva.

This incident quickly became a threat to the already fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hamas brokered by the United States in October. Since the start of the ceasefire, the Gaza Health Ministry has reported that over 400 Palestinians have been killed by Israel, and the IDF confirmed that armed militants killed three IDF soldiers over the same period. On the same day as the IDF transport attack, a Palestinian teenager, Ayoub Abdel Ayesh Nasr, was shot and killed by the Israeli military in the northern Gaza town of Jabailia, while another nine Palestinians, reportedly including children, were wounded.

The IDF transport bombing has specifically jeopardized the ceasefire. On the day of the bomb attack, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu issued a statement at a graduation ceremony for Israeli Air Force pilots, in which he called the incident a violation of the ceasefire by Hamas. "Their [Hamas] ongoing and continuing public refusal to disarm is an ongoing flagrant violation [of the ceasefire] and again today their violent intentions and violations were confirmed by their detonation of an IED that wounded an IDF officer," Netanyahu said, adding that "Israel will respond accordingly."

Hamas has denied both involvement in the detonation as well as presence of Palestinians in the area of the explosion. The armed group said Israel “must stop creating pretexts for attempts to break the ceasefire and for escalating tensions.”

Despite the fragility of the ceasefire, both sides have engaged in diplomatic talks in anticipation of the next phase of the peace plan. Israeli officials met with other nations’ diplomatic delegations to discuss the process to retrieve the last Israeli hostage, police officer Ran Gvili, from Gaza, as well as to highlight their demand of Hamas’ disarmament (with Israel claiming the group is rearming). Israel has also pushed for the introduction of an international armed force into the Palestinian territory, and has said that the transport attack represents Hamas’ refusal to demilitarize.

Hamas too, has carried out diplomatic talks. On Wednesday, December 25th, Hamas’ chief negotiator, Khalil al-Hayya, met with Turkish Prime Minister Hakan Fidan to discuss the situation in Gaza, and to detail what they describe as full compliance with the first phase of the agreed upon ceasefire deal, as well as to describe alleged Israeli violations of the ceasefire, which Hamas says are aimed at hindering the implementation of the second phase of the US peace plan.

This second phase, which is intended to begin in January 2026, involves both the full withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza and the progressive demilitarization of Hamas and other militant groups in the enclave. However, the ambiguity in the descriptions of the duties of this phase has led to a stalemate. For example, Hamas has stated they will only turn over their arms once a Palestinian state has been established and control of the territory is granted back to the Palestinians, which Israel has unequivocally said it will not allow.

A day before the explosion in the Rafah al-Janina neighbourhood, in the settlement of Beit El in the West Bank, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz stated, “We are deep inside Gaza and we will never leave Gaza,” and indicated the possibility of building Israeli settlements in northern Gaza. Katz was later made to walk back his statements on the settlements, clarifying that the IDF presence would be “solely in a security context.”

These compounding crises have only further aggravated the deteriorating humanitarian conditions in the strip, which is continuing to place pressure on the already stretched beyond capacity healthcare system, as well as humanitarian and operations.

Glossary

Aggravated - (of an offence) made more serious by attendant circumstances
Ceasefire - a temporary suspension of fighting; a truce.
Delegations - a body of delegates or representatives; a deputation.
Deteriorating - becoming progressively worse.
Demilitarization – The process of removing or reducing military forces, weapons, or infrastructure from a specific territory, a key point of contention in the second phase of the US peace plan.
Dismantle - take (a machine or structure) to pieces.
Enclave - an ethnic or political territory largely surrounded by another group’s territory.
Humanitarian conditions - the living circumstances of people whose health, safety, or well-being are threatened by a crisis such as conflict or natural disaster
IED (Improvised Explosive Device) – A type of unconventional explosive charge; in this context, the weapon Israel claims was detonated against its armored personnel carrier in Rafah.
Infrastructure - the basic physical and organizational structures and facilities (e.g. buildings, roads, power supplies) needed for the operation of a society or enterprise.
International community - a broad, informal term for the collective of nations, international organizations (like the UN), and sometimes non-state actors that cooperate on global issues, sharing norms and values like peace, human rights, and security.
Namer armored personnel carrier – A heavy infantry fighting vehicle used by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) for operational activities.
Phase 2 (US Peace Plan) – The designated stage of the diplomatic framework intended to involve the full withdrawal of Israeli forces from Palestinian territory and the progressive disarmament of Gaza.
Stalemate – A situation in which no progress can be made or no advancement is possible; currently describing the diplomatic deadlock over the conditions for Hamas’s disarmament.
Unequivocally - in a way that leaves no doubt.
Unimpeded - not obstructed or hindered.
Violation - breaking the agreed upon terms of.
War remnants – Unexploded ordinance or abandoned military materials left in a territory following active combat operations.
Withdrawal – The formal removal of military forces from an occupied area.

References

HRRC accepts NO funding from governments for our research or campaigns. At every step of the way, our impact is made possible because of people like YOU. Make your contribution now!

With second stage of peace deal on the horizon, the Israel-Hamas ceasefire is increasingly fragile

Recent Posts