Displacement Drivers and Aid Flows

Author: Mathilde Guenin

June 30, 2026

View the interactive report on Tableau.

Since 2019, the total number of displaced people has risen from 49.1 million in 2019 to 83.4 million in 2024, driven by both conflict and disasters. Conflict remains the dominant driver, with conflict-related internal displacement rising from 44.6 million (2019) to 73.5 million (2024), accounting for approximately  90% of all internally displaced people.

1. Conflict-Related Displacement and Aid

For both 2023 and 2024, Yemen, Syria, Colombia, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo experienced some of the highest levels of internal displacement, hosting large numbers of internally displaced persons (IDPs). Sudan had the highest number of IDPs in both years, reaching approximately 9 million in 2023 and 11.5 million in 2024.

The Roots of Conflict and Displacement

• Sudan has been in a civil war between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces since April 2023 (UNHCR, 2025).  

• Syria has been in a civil war since 2011, creating one of the world’s largest and longest-running displacement crises. Even though more than 1.3 million Syrian refugees have returned since the political transition in December 2024, around 16.5 million people still need humanitarian assistance in 2026 (UNHCR, Syria, January 2026). 

• Colombia continues to experience internal armed conflict involving state forces, guerrilla groups, and criminal armed actors, despite the 2016 peace agreement (Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), 2026). 

• The conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is mainly concentrated in the eastern part of the country and involves multiple armed groups. These groups are fighting over land, resources, and control, leading to continued violence and large-scale displacement (CFR, 2026). 

• The war in Yemen began in 2014 when Houthi rebels took control of Sanaa, the capital, and escalated into a larger conflict in 2015 after a Saudi-led intervention (CFR, 2025).

  
  

Aid Response to Conflict-Related Displacement

Official Development Assistance (ODA) is government aid targeting the economic development and welfare of developing countries. Adopted by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development’s (OECD) Development Assistance Committee (DAC) in 1969, it remains the gold standard of foreign aid financing, encompassing both humanitarian aid and development food aid (OECD, 2024).

While total ODA captures the full picture of development financing (which is included in the table for reference), humanitarian aid and development food aid are the most directly relevant to addressing immediate survival and food security needs in displacement crises.

Global humanitarian aid reached $22.6B in 2024, but only $877M was provided for food aid, reflecting donor preference to fund immediate needs over long-term food security.

Syria, Sudan, and Yemen - three of the most severe displacement crises - each receive more than  7% of global humanitarian aid. Development food aid remains generally limited in these countries. Yemen represents an exception, accounting for nearly 10% of global development food aid, while Syria and Sudan receive negligible shares in this category. These levels of assistance may still be insufficient given the severe needs of IDPs in these countries. For example, estimates indicate that approximately 38% of the Sudanese population was living in poverty prior to the outbreak of conflict in 2023, compared to around 70% today (Le Monde, 2026). 

Two cases stand out: Colombia, despite hosting about 7 million IDPs, receives zero development food aid and just 1.1% of humanitarian aid, suggesting underfunding relative to the crisis. Congo, on the other hand, receives only 0.03% of humanitarian aid, one of the lowest shares in the table despite ongoing mass displacement.

2. Disaster-Related Displacement and Aid

Afghanistan recorded the highest number of disaster-related IDPs in both 2023 and 2024. In 2023, it was followed by Pakistan, Ethiopia, Türkiye, and China. In 2024, it was followed by Chad, the Philippines, Ethiopia, and Somalia.

How to read the charts below: they show the types of hazards responsible for disaster-related displacement in each country, with a breakdown of the number of disaster events by hazard type.

For example, in Afghanistan in 2023, 26 disaster events led to displacement, with droughts (10) and floods (8) as the main drivers. In 2024, there was a shift, with floods becoming the dominant cause.

Another example is Somalia, which recorded 185 disaster events in 2024, where floods (82) and droughts (97) accounted for most of the displacement.

Aid Response to Disaster-Related Displacement

Total humanitarian aid ($22.6B) and development food aid ($877M) remain the same from the previous table.

Ethiopia is among the largest recipients, accounting for 21.3% of global development food aid and 4.7% of humanitarian aid. This is consistent with the scale of food insecurity and humanitarian needs in the country.

Several countries facing significant disaster-related displacement, such as Afghanistan, Somalia, and Chad, receive relatively modest shares of humanitarian aid (approximately 1–3%), while their shares of development food aid are even lower, remaining below 1% in each case.

The situation in the Philippines is also significant. Despite being one of the most disaster-exposed countries globally and hosting large numbers of IDPs, the Philippines receives no development food aid and only 0.1% of humanitarian aid. This suggests a potential mismatch between disaster risk exposure and aid allocation, at least within the scope of this dataset.

Türkiye and China, as higher-income countries with stronger domestic response capacity, are less directly comparable in this analysis.

Conclusion

With more conflict-related crises and climate-induced disasters every year, financing from higher-income countries continues to play a central role in global response efforts. However, according to the OECD, 2025 marks “the largest annual contraction of aid recorded in the history of ODA, bringing ODA levels back to where they stood at the start of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.” In 2025, global ODA fell by 23.1% in real terms compared to 2024. Total ODA from EU institutions declined by 13.8%, and ODA provided by the United States declined by 56.9% (OECD, 2025).

Funding is declining while humanitarian needs remain high due to more people being affected by conflict and climate-related disasters. This increases displacement pressures and raises questions about whether higher-income countries are responding adequately.

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Glossary

• Civil War: A war between groups within the same country, often over issues such as governance, resources, or ethnic and religious conflict. 

• Food Insecurity:  A person is food insecure when they lack regular access to enough safe and nutritious food for normal growth and development and an active and healthy life. This may be due to the unavailability of food and/or the lack of resources to obtain food.

• Houthi rebels: The Houthis are an armed political and religious group that champions Yemen's Shia Muslim minority, the Zaidis. They declare themselves to be part of the Iranian-led "axis of resistance" against Israel, the US, and the wider West - along with armed groups such as Hamas and Lebanon's Hezbollah movement.

• Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs): People who are forced to flee their homes due to conflict, violence, or disasters but remain within their country’s borders.

• OECD Development Assistance Committee (DAC): The Development Assistance Committee of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. It is a group of major donor countries that:

  • Define what counts as Official Development Assistance (ODA) 

  • Set standards for development and humanitarian aid

  • Collect and publish data on aid flows

  • Promote effective and coordinated development cooperation

• The DAC is composed mainly of high-income donor governments (such as EU countries, the United States, Japan, Canada, etc.) that report their development assistance to the OECD using common rules.

• Official Development Assistance: Official Development Assistance (ODA) is government aid designed to promote the economic development and welfare of developing countries. It includes concessional financial flows provided by official donors, such as members of the OECD Development Assistance Committee (DAC), to eligible countries and territories. One component of ODA is humanitarian aid and development food aid, which supports emergency relief, food security, and longer-term resilience in countries affected by crises, conflict, or vulnerability.

• Rapid Support Forces (RSF): A paramilitary group in Sudan, initially formed from Janjaweed militias, that has played a significant role in the Sudanese conflict, including during the Darfur genocide.

• Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF): The national military of Sudan, involved in multiple conflicts, including the Darfur genocide and the ongoing Sudanese Civil War.

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Sources

1. Council on Foreign Relations. (2026). Preventing renewed conflict in Colombia. https://www.cfr.org/reports/preventing-renewed-conflict-in-colombia

2. Council on Foreign Relations. (2026). Violence in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/violence-democratic-republic-congo

3. Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC). Internal displacement database. https://www.internal-displacement.org/database/

4. Le Monde. (2026). “War pushes 70% of Sudanese population into poverty, reports UN” https://www.lemonde.fr/en/le-monde-africa/article/2026/04/14/war-pushes-70-of-sudanese-population-into-poverty-reports-un_6752392_124.html 

5. OECD. (2026). International aid fell sharply in 2025, says OECD. https://www.oecd.org/en/about/news/press-releases/2026/04/international-aid-fell-sharply-in-2025-says-oecd.html

6. OECD. (2026). Official development assistance (ODA) data explorer, DAC2 https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?fs[0]=Topic%2C1%7CDevelopment%23DEV%23%7COfficial%20Development%20Assistance%20%28ODA%29%23DEV_ODA%23&pg=0&fc=Topic&bp=true&snb=20&vw=tb&df[ds]=dsDisseminateFinalDMZ&df[id]=DSD_DAC2%40DF_DAC2A&df[ag]=OECD.DCD.FSD&df[vs]=1.4&dq=DAC.SYR%2BCOG%2BCOL%2BYEM%2BDPGC%2BSDN.213%2B216.USD.Q&pd=2023%2C2024&to[TIME_PERIOD]=false 

7. OECD. (2026). Official development assistance (ODA) data explorer, DAC2 https://data-explorer.oecd.org/vis?fs[0]=Topic%2C1%7CDevelopment%23DEV%23%7COfficial%20Development%20Assistance%20%28ODA%29%23DEV_ODA%23&pg=0&fc=Topic&bp=true&snb=20&vw=tb&df[ds]=dsDisseminateFinalDMZ&df[id]=DSD_DAC2%40DF_DAC2A&df[ag]=OECD.DCD.FSD&df[vs]=1.4&dq=DAC.AFG%2BPAK%2BETH%2BTUR%2BCHN%2BTCD%2BPHL%2BSOM%2BDPGC.213%2B216.USD.Q&pd=2023%2C2024&to[TIME_PERIOD]=false 

8. UNHCR. (2025). Sudan crisis explained. https://www.unrefugees.org/news/sudan-crisis-explained/

9. UNHCR. (2026). Syria situation update (document no. 121289). https://data.unhcr.org/en/documents/details/121289