Interview: How Far Will Russia Go?

Author: Ioana Podarita

August 13, 2026

Vladimir Putin [Image source: Wikimedia Commons]

On May 29th, a Russian drone hit a residential building in Galati, Romania, injuring two civilians. Romania’s President Dan has stated the drone was probably part of the Russian attack on Ukraine, whose air defences likely altered the drone’s trajectory and caused it to hit the eastern Romanian city. Russia’s “reckless” escalation was condemned by the international community, with US Ambassador to NATO Matthew Whitaker vowing to “defend every inch of NATO territory.” EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen also expressed solidarity with Romania and announced a “21st package of sanctions” on Russia on X. 

While this marked the first instance of casualties on NATO territory, Eastern non-combatant airspaces, especially Romania’s and Poland’s, have been consistently violated since the beginning of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. 

[Data source: Wikipedia; Image creation: HRRC]

Whether the violations have been accidental or intentional, Russia has been persistently testing how far it can breach NATO and EU territory without consequences. On July 3rd, 2026, the US alerted Poland that Russia is planning an armed attack on its territory, possibly as soon as in the next few months. Polish security sources believe the provocation could entail anything from drone attacks on infrastructure to ground incursions from Russian and Belarusian soldiers. The sources also believe Russia plans to test NATO’s resolve, increase tensions in the region, and force Western powers to stop the aid to Ukraine through this attack. 

With these aggressive tactics, it is becoming increasingly evident that Putin plans to restore Russia’s standing on the international stage, as Hill and Gaddy (2015, p. 213) pointed out in their book, “Mr. Putin: Operative in the Kremlin.” There, they draw attention to Putin’s 1999 “Millennium Message,” a manifesto he published only a few days before becoming president of Russia. In it, he vowed to rebuild, protect, and preserve the Russian state and to ensure its national security. At that time, he did not explain how he would deliver on his promise, but the annexation of Crimea in 2014 proved that he is willing to violate international law to ensure Russia’s victory. 

In 2014, in just a matter of days, pro-Russia gunmen seized government buildings in Crimea, and Putin approved Russian forces to be used in Ukraine. Western leaders swiftly condemned Russia’s actions and affirmed their solidarity with Ukraine, much like they do today. The EU and the US imposed travel bans and asset freezes on Russia. G7 leaders called on Russia to “cease all efforts to change the status of Crimea contrary to Ukrainian law and in violation of international law.” In turn, on March 21st, 2014, Putin signed a law officiating Russia’s annexation of Crimea. 

Since taking over Crimea, Putin (and, by extension, Russia) has been using the same modus operandi to cling to power in the East. Russia openly defends its violent and reckless attacks, and does so without facing any real consequences from Western powers. Immediately after the drone attack in Romania, Russia’s deputy chair ‌of the Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, warned the EU that “this ​will continue to happen,” proving that Russia has no intention to stand down anytime soon. 

NATO’s condemnations, sanctions, and support of Ukraine cannot stop Putin’s imperialist agenda, and without a change of strategy, Russia will continue its violent expansion. NYT columnist and long-time Putin scholar M. Gessen argues that the only thing that could deter Russia is the “real threat of military defeat.” They assert that the US and NATO have been holding back since the beginning of the invasion, but that they have the capacity to make Russia actually fear “military defeat.” 

While it is clear that diplomatic avenues cannot deter Putin, military action might not be the only solution available. On June 4, 2026, President Zelenskyy of Ukraine posted an open letter to Putin urging him to agree to a face-to-face peace talk. Unsurprisingly, Putin declined the invitation, stating he “did not see any point to it.” However, the real answer may lie in President Zelenskyy’s letter, at the very end: “It is a fact of Russian history that you know well: when Russia grows tired, change comes.” 

In order to better understand what the “change” might be, and how we can all help Ukraine work towards it, HRRC's Ioana Podarita interviewed political science Professor Mike McBride. Dr. McBride taught at Whittier College for 56 years, specializing in Soviet and Russian history and politics, human rights, and the UN.

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The Russian Citizens 

Ioana Podarita (IP): How do you interpret President Zelenskyy’s warning? Do you think he is referring to the country’s resources, or perhaps the support of his own people?

Mike McBride, PhD (MM): I think Zelenskyy’s warning is an attempt to remind Putin that there have been changes in Russian leadership when the elites – the Tsarist era; or more recently the 1917 revolution and the collapse of the Soviet Union (1991) – led to changes at the top, and perhaps Putin needs to rethink whether continuing the war is worth the effort and the risk to his continued leadership. While Putin, much like Donald Trump, probably has a very strong base among the public that will continue to support him, there has been increasing unhappiness among the overall population, especially as Ukraine has strengthened its drone attacks inside Russia, though any change in leadership will be unlikely to come from a popular uprising.

IP: It seems that being held accountable by the international community is of no consequence to Putin. Do you think Russian citizens are the only ones able to stop him, or is he truly untouchable?

MM: There is still strong criticism of Russia among member states of the UN and certainly the EU. If the EU indicates it is still going to support Ukraine and perhaps increase that support, it should make Putin think about whether it is worth continuing the war, or whether he should try to reach some agreement, one that would leave him in control over some of the areas Russia has taken thus far. On the other hand, if he remains determined to stay the course, there is the danger of his using more destructive weapons in response to greater Western support of Ukraine and his continuing to attack places in Kyiv and other parts of Ukraine; the damage to the Pechersk Monastery, assuming it was caused by Russia, is especially disturbing to me since I have been there. In the past, the changes that have occurred in Russia have come through the political elite, but so far, Putin seems to have created a system in which those closest to him are quite loyal to him, and if he were to be ousted, it might come from people who are even harder-line than he is.

Putin’s Motivations

IP: Several scholars have speculated on Putin’s motivations for how he rules Russia – whether he believes that his destiny is tied to that of the state, or whether being “CEO” of the country (Hill and Gaddy, 2015) gives him a sense of power he lacked in his youth – does it actually matter? 

MM: I agree with Hill and Gaddy's approach to explaining Putin's behavior, and especially that he does identify himself with the State, playing a role close to that of a tsar who has loyal supporters around him and who wants to restore Russia to its former greatness. I also agree with Brian Taylor's analysis in his book The Code of Putinism, where Taylor stresses Putin's emphasis on loyalty, his antipathy toward the West, which he thinks humiliated Russia during the Yeltsin era, and his very strong opposition to NATO's expansion into what he regards as a Russian sphere of influence. And he certainly believes that Ukraine (remember it was the birthplace of Russia and a part of Russia for centuries), should once again be part of Russia. And Putin's sense of his role of restoring Russia's greatness could also serve to help overcome any sense of being bullied as a youth and even to some extent his being an outsider in his early years of service in the KGB in Germany, while many changes were occurring in the Soviet Union and Russia.

IP: Is understanding Vladimir Putin the key to stopping Russia?

MM: I think understanding Putin's sense of his role in history and his antipathy to the West and NATO is extremely important. Putin has developed control over Russian domestic and foreign policies through his "managed democracy" (or other terms to describe what is essentially an authoritarian system), and this allows him to act on his personal beliefs and goals (which are reflected in Taylor's analysis of the code). If we don't recognize what motivates him, it will be hard to negotiate with him and reach an acceptable outcome for both sides.

The Bigger Picture

IP: How does Trump’s war with Iran influence how this invasion unfolds?

MM: This is hard to say now with the MOU – or what may become a Memorandum of Mis-Understanding, my phrase – between the US and Iran. What will happen to Russian-Iranian relations is unclear if the MOU holds.

IP: Should we expect to see new alliances forming, and is a bigger conflict brewing now?

MM: I think the changes resulting from the recent election in Hungary and Putin's continued attacks on civilian areas in Ukraine will strengthen the EU's resolve to help Ukraine; this seems to have been the outcome of the most recent G7 meeting. Other member states in the UN will continue to call for an end to the war, but I don't see any new alliances – there isn't much the UN can do except offer its "good offices," and that hasn't really happened thus far. I don't know that there will be new alliances forming, but perhaps if there is a settlement of the US-Iran war, this would limit any aid Iran can provide to Russia. China might play a mediating role between Russia and Ukraine if it gets tired of having to be an ally of Russia while working on relations with the US.

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Glossary

• Annexation: Possession taken of a piece of land or a country, usually by force or without permission.

• Deter: To prevent someone from doing something or to make someone less enthusiastic about doing something by making it difficult for that person to do it or by threatening bad results if they do it.

• European Commission (EU Commission): The executive branch of the European Union, responsible for proposing laws, implementing EU policies, and representing the EU internationally.

• Group of Seven (G7): A group of leading industrial countries consisting of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK, and the US, whose leaders meet regularly to discuss international political and economic issues, or a meeting of this group.

• Hegemony: (especially of countries) The position of being the strongest and most powerful and therefore able to control others.

• Imperialist: A system in which a country rules other countries, sometimes having used force to get power over them.

• Managed democracy: a formally democratic system that functions as an authoritarian regime. Also known as "guided democracy," it allows citizens to vote, but ruling elites control the electoral process and media so that the state's policies and leadership are never truly challenged or changed.

• Memorandum of Understanding (MOU): a formal, non-legally binding document between two or more parties that outlines their mutual goals, responsibilities, and intentions to collaborate. It serves as a foundational "handshake" agreement before entering into a legally binding contract.

• Modus operandi: A Latin phrase meaning "method of operating." It refers to someone's usual way of carrying out actions or achieving goals.

• NATO: The North Atlantic Treaty Organization, a military alliance of 32 countries in North America and Europe whose members agree to defend one another if attacked.

• Non-combatant: A person, group, or area that is not directly involved in fighting during a war or conflict. Civilians are generally considered non-combatants.

• Seized: Took control of something, often by force or authority.

• 21st package of sanctions: The twenty-first set of economic and political penalties imposed by the EU on Russia. Sanctions can include trade restrictions, travel bans, asset freezes, and financial limitations.

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References

1. Barbu, M. (2026). Nato condemns Russia after drone hits Romanian residential block, injuring two. BBC News. https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c93x4nxlkjeo

2. BBC News. (2014). Ukraine: Putin signs Crimea annexation. BBC News.  https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26686949

3. Burrows, E. (2025). How Europe can defend itself against Russian drones and electronic warfare. PBS News. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/how-europe-can-defend-itself-against-russian-drones-and-electronic-warfare 

4. Croft, A. (2026). Russia plotting attack on Poland to test Nato’s resolve, US claims. The Independent. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-poland-attack-nato-ukraine-b3008157.html

5. Fadel, L. (2025). Columnist Masha Gessen discusses Putin’s larger goals for Russia. NPR. https://www.npr.org/2025/08/14/nx-s1-5501367/columnist-masha-gessen-discusses-putins-larger-goals-for-russia

6. Hill, F., & Gaddy, C. G. (2015). Mr. Putin: Operative in the Kremlin (Revised ed.). Brookings Institution Press. 

7. Jurasz, W., Rothwell, J., & Barnes, J. (2026). Russia planning attack on Poland to test Nato resolve, US warns. The Telegraph. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/07/03/russia-planning-attack-on-poland-test-nato-resolve-us-warns/

8. Office, 10 Downing Street Prime Minister’s. (2014). Statement of G7 leaders on Ukraine. GOV.UK. https://www.gov.uk/government/news/statement-of-g7-leaders-on-ukraine

9. Reuters. (2026). Russian official warns Europe to brace for more drone incidents after Romania episode. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-official-warns-europe-brace-more-drone-incidents-after-romania-episode-2026-05-29/

10. The New York Times. (2026). Russian Drone Hits Romanian Apartment Building, Officials Say. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/29/world/europe/romania-drone-russia-ukraine.html

11. Walker, N. (2023). Conflict in Ukraine: A timeline (2014–eve of 2022 invasion). Commons Library. https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9476/