Counting the Cost: The Environmental Toll on Ukraine from the Russian Invasion

Author: Anonymous

October 14, 2025

From 2022 to 2024, Russia occupied over 20% of Ukraine's territory and caused almost 400,000 Ukrainian casualties (Center for Preventive Action, 2025). Included in this casualty toll are nearly 13,883 civilians, of whom 726 are children. This war has caused over 60,000–100,000 military deaths (Guardian, 2025).

The Russian offensives have devastated key metropolitan districts, destroying much of the civilian infrastructure and more than 236,000 residential buildings (KSE, 2025). In addition, the conflict has caused severe ecological damage, including landscape fires, heavy metal and radioactive pollution, farmland destruction and contamination, and refugee relocation. All of these damages contribute to the significant increase in greenhouse gas emissions.

Figure 1. A destroyed residential building, illustrating targeted attacks on civilian infrastructure (Image credit: Brookings.edu).

Infrastructure Damage 

The Russian invasion inflicted extensive damage to Ukraine's infrastructure, including private and state-owned enterprises, power grids, and oil and gas facilities. While the collapse of industrial activity, along with mass civilian displacement and logistical strain, briefly reduced CO₂ emissions, overall, it has turned Ukraine into a high-emission conflict zone (Bun et al., 2024).

Figure 2. Ukrainian emergency responders clearing debris from a residential area following a missile strike (Image credit: Oleksandr Ratushniak/UNDP Ukraine).

The invasion has wrecked more than 26,000 km of roads, 236,000 residential buildings, 4,000 schools, and thousands of cultural, religious, and sports sites. About 2.5 million homes, 13% of Ukraine's housing stock, have been destroyed. Energy systems sustained a 70% surge in damage, particularly to power generation, transmission, distribution systems, and district heating networks (UN, 2025). 

Non-nuclear energy infrastructure

The energy infrastructure in Ukraine has been severely affected. As of August 2024, Russian forces had launched nine waves of coordinated long-range strikes, resulting in extensive damage to power generation, transmission, and distribution systems (UN, 2024). The damage was estimated to cost $14.6 billion, with the electricity generation and transmission sectors experiencing the most severe losses. 

In addition, all coal-fired, hydroelectric, and 20 combined heat and power plants were affected. Losses were estimated at $3.8 billion for thermal generation, $1.6 billion for combined heat and power, and $2.5 billion for hydroelectric and pumped-storage facilities. Moreover, damage to renewable electricity production was estimated at $281 million (Andrienko et al., 2024). Since 2022, at least 32 major oil depots have been damaged or destroyed, resulting in losses of $266 million. The breakdown of heat supply systems has left residents without heating, worsening already dire living conditions.

Nuclear Power Plants (NPP)

Ukraine operates four nuclear power plant (NPP) sites, with 15 reactors. Four reactors are in Rivne, three in South Ukraine/Pivdennoukrainsk, two in Khmelnytskyi, and six in Zaporizhzhia. All Zaporizhzhia reactors remain shut due to the ongoing Russian occupation (World Nuclear Association, 2024). Nuclear energy supplies over 50% of Ukraine's electricity, which is about 52 TWh of 103 TWh annually. The three-year shutdown of Zaporizhzhia, Europe's largest NPP, has removed 6 GW of capacity, roughly one-fifth of pre-war output.

In 2023, the Khmelnytskyi NPP sustained blast-wave damage when adjacent explosions shattered glass across multiple plant buildings. Operations and safety systems remained unaffected (WNN, 2023). A 2022 missile strike detonated 300 meters from the South Ukraine NPP, damaging the industrial zone and briefly disrupting external power (WNN, 2022). While Rivne NPP has avoided direct damage, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reports ongoing drone activity and air-raid alerts, underscoring the persistent threat to nuclear infrastructure (IAEA, 2025).

Summary of infrastructure damage

Joint estimates from Ukraine's government and international partners place direct war damage at $176 billion (Table 1; Andrienko et al., 2024). Reconstruction costs are projected at $84 billion for housing, $78 billion for transport, $68 billion for energy, and $64 billion for industry (UN, 2025). 

Table 1. Estimated infrastructural damages in Ukraine as of November 2024 2024 (Andrienko et al., 2024) 

Sectors	Damage ($ Billion)	Share %
Residential buildings	60	35.3
Infrastructure	38.5	22.7
Energy sector	14.6	8.6
Assets of enterprises, industry	14.4	8.5
Agriculture and land resources	10.3	6.1
Education	7.3	4.3
Forest fund	4.5	2.7
Healthcare	4.3	2.5
Culture, tourism, sports	4	2.3
Municipal services and utilities*	3.5	2
Transport vehicles	3.5	2
Trade	2.8	1.7
Digital infrastructure	1.2	0.7
Administrative buildings	0.8	0.4
Social sector	0.2	0.1
Financial sector	0.04	0.01

Landscape Fires

The forest resources in Ukraine contribute to soil conservation and river basin water balance, while supplying lumber, firewood, and food to residents. Sustained military operations, such as missile strikes, fuel combustion, and artillery fire, cause wildfires and deforestation in Ukraine's 100,000 km² of forest. In 2022 and 2023, 808 km² and 772 km², respectively, were lost, contributing to 21% of total GHG emissions in Ukraine (Igini, 2025). 

In 2024, 9,000 fires consumed 965,0 km², which was nearly 10% of the total area. The most affected regions include Donets'k (180.25 km²), Kharkiv (181.38 km²), Kherson (214.14 km²), Kyiv (268.37 km²), and Luhans'k (195.4 km²) (Figure 3) (Cazzolla Gatti et al., 2025). The fire damage exceeded that of all 27 EU countries combined. Emissions from landscape fires surged to 48.7 Mt CO₂, a 113% increase from the 2022–2023 levels (Abnett, 2025). 

Figure 3. Fire location in the Russia-Ukraine war zone (EU Science Hub, 2025) (Image credit: EU, 2025 – GWIS)

Heavy Metal and Radioactive Pollutants

The war has intensified environmental degradation through increased emissions and the release of hazardous pollutants in conflict zones. For instance, ammunition, such as 5.56 × 45 mm NATO NM229 and SS109 rounds, contains heavy metals, including copper, lead, iron, and zinc, that leach into soil and groundwater, creating long-term environmental and health problems (Yutilova et al., 2025).

Additionally, infrastructure damage poses further environmental threats. The Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant remains a potential source of radioactive contamination, while the breakdown of municipal services increases the risk of hazardous chemical exposure. Although international conventions prohibit attacks on water infrastructure such as dams, the war has caused both direct and indirect damage to these facilities (Hryhorczuk et al., 2024).

On June 6, 2023, the Kakhovka Dam and Hydroelectric Power Plant collapsed, releasing 19.8 km³ of water and devastating the villages of Nova Kakhovka. This disaster not only destroyed a critical freshwater source for humans and agriculture but also deposited sediment and industrial pollutants in downstream habitats. Moreover, the floodwaters carried sewage, petroleum, and industrial pollutants into the Dnipro River, resulting in widespread bacterial and chemical contamination that flowed into the Black Sea, thereby threatening marine biodiversity and coastal health. Additionally, 724 hydraulic structures, 71 water pump stations, 64 sewage pump stations, and 23 water treatment facilities were destroyed, resulting in the discharge of 20.7 billion m³ of effluent into surface waterways (World Bank Group, 2023).

Impacts on Agriculture and Soil

Ukraine, historically recognized as a global breadbasket, has approximately 42.2 million hectares, with 70% of its area as agricultural land. Before the invasion, it ranked as the world's fourth-largest maize exporter, seventh in soybeans, and third in rapeseed, while supplying over half of the global sunflower oil (BBC, 2023; Countryman et al., 2024). 

Approximately 20% of Ukraine's most fertile land has been directly affected by military operations, contaminating over 200,000 acres (Dmytruk, 2024). Satellite assessments indicate that 18.1% of cropland remained unplanted in 2022 across high-risk regions, including Crimea, Donetsk, Kherson, Luhans'k, and Zaporizhzhia. Production losses reached $520.4 million for wheat, $427.6 million for sunflower, and $205 million for rapeseed (Chen et al., 2024).

Beyond economic damage, the war has degraded soil health. Explosions have altered the soil's physical, chemical, and biological properties, with over 400,000 bomb craters identified via remote sensing (Figure 4) (Bonchkovskyi et al., 2025). In Kharkiv, lead, zinc, and copper levels exceeded permissible limits by 2.8, 1.4, and 1.45 times, respectively, posing serious risks to ecosystems and public health (Krainiuk et al., 2025). Despite widespread disruption, Ukraine's agriculture sector has shown resilience. By 2024, agri-exports partially rebounded to $24.5 billion, accounting for 59% of total national exports.

Ukraine's agricultural infrastructure has also suffered significant losses, with 130,000 units of equipment destroyed, 4 million tons of grain storage damaged, and 16,000 hectares of perennial crops affected (KSE, 2025). The war has severely disrupted the agriculture sector, causing an estimated $80 billion in losses, including $10 billion in revenues and $70 billion in rising input costs (Tetteh, 2024). Reconstruction costs for this sector are to be $55 billion (UN, 2025). 

Figure 4. The picture shows the crater after a missile attack in Buda-Babynetska, Ukraine (Image credit: Al Jazeera).

Refugee Relocation

Nearly 5.7 million Ukrainians have been displaced. (UNHCR, 2025). Regional Refugee Response Plans, coordinated by host governments and international agencies, have supported settlements aligned with international standards.

Over 5.1 million refugees have been resettled in Europe, with Germany and Poland hosting the largest shares (24% and 19.47%, respectively) (Table 2; UNHCR, 2025). More than half a million sought refuge beyond Europe, especially in the USA and Canada. Humanitarian needs remain vast. In 2025, 12.7 million people, including nearly 2 million children, will require assistance, representing one-third of Ukraine's population (UNHCR, 2025a).

Table 2. Number of refugees in Europe with share% by countries (as of 8/31/2024) )(UNHCR, 2025b)

Country	No of Refugees	Share (%)
Germany	1,233,280	24.00
Poland	1,000,240	19.47
Czech Republic	379,120	7.38
United Kingdom	254,580	4.95
Spain	243,670	4.74
Romania	188,270	3.66
Italy	177,340	3.45
Slovakia	146,200	2.85
Republic of Moldova	135,080	2.63
Netherlands	128,150	2.49
Ireland	113,920	2.22
Belgium	92,740	1.81
Austria	87,540	1.70
Norway	82,120	1.60
Finland	74,890	1.46
France	74,010	1.44
Switzerland	70,380	1.37
Bulgaria	67,730	1.32
Hungary	64,190	1.25
Portugal	63,690	1.24
Lithuania	47,680	0.93
Sweden	45,520	0.89
Belarus	41,460	0.81
Estonia	41,400	0.81
Denmark	38,350	0.75
Greece	36,600	0.71
Latvia	30,920	0.60
Georgia	30,000	0.58
Croatia	27,070	0.53
Cyprus	24,440	0.48
North Macedonia	20,740	0.40
Montenegro	18,560	0.36
Serbia and Kosovo	10,720	0.21
Slovenia	10,860	0.21
Albania	9,250	0.18
Russian Federation	7,050	0.14
Azerbaijan	5,110	0.10
Iceland	4,220	0.08
Luxembourg	3,900	0.08
Malta	2,490	0.05
Turkey	2,620	0.05
Armenia	770	0.01
Bosnia and Herzegovina	270	0.01
Liechtenstein	770	0.01
Total	5,137,310	100

Greenhouse Gas Emissions

During the first 18 months of the war, Ukraine experienced a 157.7-million-ton CO₂ reduction in emissions, primarily due to the collapse of its industrial sector. However, this decline was quickly offset by other war-related damages. For example, in 2023, emissions from Ukraine's damaged oil infrastructure reached 2.1 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent (MtCO₂e), substantially tripling the levels from the previous two years (Bun et al., 2024).

Numerous emission sources were identified. Explosive detonations, military fuel usage, fuel depot burning, and fires from bombardments of cities, woods, and agricultural areas are some of the significant contributions (Bun et al., 2024). Unregulated waste incineration and emissions from refugee migrations and civil aviation also contribute to this total. According to current estimates, 36% of total GHG emissions from the war originate from military activities, followed by 27% from rehabilitation, 8% from attacks on energy infrastructure, 6% from civil aviation, and 2% from refugee relocation (Figure 5) (Igini, 2025). Using a social cost of carbon of $185 per ton, Ukraine estimates that the war has caused over $42 billion in climate-related damages (euronews, 2025; Klerk, 2025). 

Figure 5. Distribution of GHG emissions in different sectors (PC: earth.org)

Over the course of three years, war-related activities generated nearly 230 million tons of CO₂ equivalent, surpassing the yearly emissions of 175 countries and comparable to the emissions of 120 million fossil fuel-powered automobiles (Guardian, 2024).

While these emissions contribute only approximately 0.55% of the global CO₂ emissions, based on the 2024 projection of 41.6 billion tons from fossil fuels and land-use change, they have increased significantly by 31% in 2023 compared to 2022 (Global Carbon Project, 2024).  

Environmental Remediation Efforts

Ukraine's postwar reconstruction and recovery are projected to cost $524 billion (€506 billion) over the next decade (UN, 2025). Environmental damage alone exceeds $127 billion (€108 billion), with the Ministry of Environment reporting over 9,000 cases of ecological destruction (Visit Ukraine, 2025). Temporarily occupied regions also contain around 50% of Ukraine's key mineral reserves, resulting in estimated losses of $12.5 trillion (€10.6 trillion).

Some ecosystems have sustained irreversible damage, complicating efforts to restore pre-war conditions. Nonetheless, the Environment Ministry has initiated recovery steps, including drafting the On Green Recovery law, launching forest demining operations, and supporting animal rehabilitation. The On Green Recovery legislation establishes the principles of a green taxonomy to encourage sustainable investment and the development of new financial products such as green bonds (Visit Ukraine, 2025). Ukraine continues to seek support from international partners, investors, and environmental organizations to scale restoration efforts.

Conclusion

The Russian invasion has resulted in a series of interconnected humanitarian, infrastructural, and environmental crises, collectively representing one of the most catastrophic humanitarian crises in contemporary European history. The scale of destruction is substantial, and the full extent of damage, currently unclear, is likely to be significant. With the rising death toll, the conflict has caused a systematic destruction of energy infrastructure, water systems, forests, and agricultural fields, which has increased environmental pollution and ultimately human suffering. The severity of the damage is well beyond Ukraine's ability to manage alone. Sustained and organized international assistance is essential, not only as a political commitment, but also as a shared moral obligation. Ukraine's rehabilitation must therefore be recognized as a global issue, requiring a persistent commitment and a long-term strategy.

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Glossary

• Agricultural exports: crops and food products sold to other countries.

• Annex: to take control of another country's territory by force.

• Biodiversity: the variety of plant and animal life in an ecosystem.

• Bomb craters: large holes in the ground caused by explosions.

• Climate emergency: a critical situation where climate change is causing severe harm to the planet.

• CO₂: carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas that contributes to global warming.

• Contamination: pollution that makes air, water, or soil unsafe.

• Dam collapse: sudden breaking or damage to a dam, leading to flooding.

• Demining: the process of removing landmines and explosives from an area.

• Ecological damage: harm to natural environments and ecosystems.

• Effluent: liquid waste or sewage discharged into a body of water. 

• Emissions: gases released into the atmosphere, often from burning fuel.

• Explosive ordnance: bombs, shells, and other weapons that explode.

• Fossil fuels: coal, oil, and natural gas—energy sources that release CO₂ when burned.

• Forest degradation: damage to forests, reducing their health and function.

• GHG (Greenhouse Gas): gases like CO₂ that trap heat in the atmosphere.

• Global breadbasket: a country that produces large amounts of food for the world.

• Heavy metals: toxic metals like lead and mercury that pollute soil and water.

• Hydraulic structures: human-made systems like dams and canals that control water flow.

• Infrastructure: essential systems like roads, power plants, and water supplies.

• Irreversible damage: harm that cannot be undone or repaired.

• Land-use change: converting natural land (like forests) into farms or cities.

• Municipal services: public services like water supply, sewage, and waste management.

• Nuclear power plant: a facility that generates electricity using nuclear reactions.

• Pollutants: harmful substances that contaminate air, water, or soil.

• Radioactive materials: substances that emit harmful radiation.

• Rehabilitation: repairing damaged environments or infrastructure.

• Social cost of carbon: the economic damage caused by emitting one ton of CO₂.

• Soil degradation: decline in soil quality due to pollution or erosion.

• Toxic pollution: harmful chemicals that endanger health and ecosystems.

• Wildfires: uncontrolled fires that spread through forests or grasslands.

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References

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