Climate Change Impacts in Central American Dry Corridor: A Catalyst for Internal and International Migration

Author: Anonymous

October 14, 2026

Cracked earth during a dry period in Nicaragua [Image credit: CIAT/Wikimedia Commons]

The repercussions of climate change on disadvantaged populations in Central America are severely affecting livelihoods, forcing internal or international migration of numerous individuals, particularly to the U.S. While climate change remains a global problem, the Central American Dry Corridor (CADC) countries, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua, are especially vulnerable to extreme weather events. These low-income countries bear a disproportionate environmental burden, mostly from the world's richest and carbon-emitting nations, despite producing less than 0.2% of global carbon emissions. Climate change-related challenges such as drought, hurricanes, coastal flooding, and erosion may cause food insecurity, driving people to migrate. 

Figure 1

Figure 1. The Central American Dry Corridor (CADC) spans Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua and shows low (green; 42%), high (yellow; 50.5%) and severe (red; 7.5%) levels of drought (FAO, 2021).

What is the Central American Dry Corridor?     

The Central American Dry Corridor (CADC) is a climate-vulnerable geographical zone on the Pacific side of Central America characterized by unpredictable rainfall, recurring droughts, soil degradation, and significant dependency on rain-fed agriculture. This region is home to 21 million rural residents, with more than 20% of them employed in agriculture and over one-third living in poverty. 

Climate change, a result of anthropogenic activities caused a change in the geographical distribution of precipitation and temperature at an unprecedented rate. As a result, the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events, such as heat waves, droughts, wildfires, and storms, are growing on a global scale. By 2100, researchers project that Central America will be one of the global regions most vulnerable to significant drought risks and rainfall shortages, which have a greater impact on agricultural livelihoods (Anderson et al., 2025). Most of the population in this region—56% in Honduras to 95% in El Salvador—was exposed to two or more natural extreme event risks, affecting 57% to 96% of the GDP, in 2022 (Castellanos & Fernanda, 2023). 

Rural farmers and Indigenous tribes in mountainous areas are expected to see greater declines in crop yields. The 1998–2017 Global Climate Risk Index by Germanwatch places the CADC countries among the twenty most affected by extreme weather events, with Honduras second, Nicaragua sixth, Guatemala fourteenth, and El Salvador sixteenth (FAO, 2026). Additionally, four Central American countries (Honduras, Guatemala, El Salvador, and Costa Rica) rank among the top 20 globally by the total number of disasters (droughts, storms, and floods) between 2019 and 2024 (Guardian, 2026). 

Lastly, the Berkeley Law Human Rights Clinic surveyed 87 Central American migrants and found that more than 80% had experienced at least one climate event in the five years before leaving, with 55% experiencing four or more. Hurricanes (64%), heatwaves (56%), and flooding (55%), landslides (45%), droughts (41%), growing season changes (38%), and forest fires (37%), were the most reported events (Kerwin, 2026).

Climate Hazards and their impacts in Central America

What is drought?

Drought is prolonged dry weather caused by low precipitation over an extended period that damages crops and depletes water supplies. The factors that contribute to drought are climate change, ocean temperatures, changes in the jet stream, and local landscapes (NASA, 2026). Deforestation and other anthropogenic causes of environmental degradation, such as water contamination from industrial and agricultural operations, can intensify the problem (UNDRR, 2024).

Causes of drought

Precipitation and surface temperature are correlated. As the global temperature increases, wet regions become wetter and dry regions become drier. While increasing temperatures in more arid locations causes water to evaporate more quickly and become more scarce, warmer air in wetter areas will result in more rain (Climate Space, 2023).

El Niño is a natural climatic phenomenon in which the surface waters of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean become warmer than normal for several months. It happens every two to seven years and lasts about nine to twelve months. The impact of each El Niño event is contingent upon its intensity, duration, time of year of occurrence, and interactions with other climate variability modes (World Meteorological Organization, 2026). Such temperature increase displaces tropical rainfall in northeast Brazil, Central America, and the Caribbean, resulting in droughts. Overall, El Niño alters the typical path of storms, redistributing global rainfall and causing floods in some areas and drought in others (Ault, 2020).

Several rainfall deficits observed in Central America between 2015 and 2019 might not be connected to climate change but instead to natural climate variability alone, such as El Niño (Anderson et al., 2023). Furthermore, the Caribbean Low-Level Jet's strength, which is responsible for transporting moisture from the Caribbean Sea to Central America, is significantly correlated with the persistent dry conditions in the region.

Drought impacts on Central America

Droughts have been persistent in the CADC for more than 12,000 years with substantial variability in its duration, magnitude, and impacts. Since 1981, there has been a regional drought about every seven years. Each one lasts about a year and affects an average of four countries (UNDRR, 2024). The region experienced consecutive droughts from 2015 to 2019. Consequently, around 10.5 million individuals are affected, and more than two-thirds of this population lives in poverty, primarily within small agricultural communities (Depsky & Pons, 2021). 

In Central America, approximately 78.6% of agriculture is family-based, with an average of 3.13 hectares per family, and over 60% of families depend on agriculture (UNDRR, 2024). Among rural households, the proportion engaged in the cultivation of staple grains varies from 54% in El Salvador and Honduras to 61% in Guatemala. Small-scale basic grain growers in the CADC earn a minimum of 72 USD per month in Honduras and 104 USD in El Salvador (FAO, 2026).

Central America and the Caribbean could experience a 10% to 50% drop in their mean annual precipitation (MAP) by 2100. Despite a slight decrease of mean annual rainfall compared to that between 1950 and 2005, relative changes in drought features (length, intensity, frequency, intensity-weighted drought months per year) are expected to be increasingly noticeable from 2071 to 2100 (Depsky & Pons, 2021).

The social and economic effects of these extended droughts are significant. Droughts can lower crop production and disrupt the value chain by causing damage to vegetation cover, accelerating land degradation, increasing soil erosion, and ultimately decreasing soil fertility. Soil degradation is expected to reduce staple grain production by about 25% in the CADC. By early 2019, the region entered its fifth consecutive drought, resulting in 2.2 million people losing crops and 1.4 million needing food aid. Overall, the agricultural sector has lost around $5 billion USD over the last 30 years because of droughts (Depsky & Pons, 2021).

Honduras remains one of the poorest and most unequal countries in the Western Hemisphere; roughly one in six Hondurans live on less than US$1.90 per day, and 80% of the households rely on agricultural income. Its small, agriculture-dependent economy has a weak institutional and financial infrastructure and is highly vulnerable to natural disasters, crime, and political instability. It was ranked second for the highest incidence of extreme weather events from 1998 to 2017 (World Bank Group, 2023). Climate change has contributed to Honduras experiencing severe weather events like droughts and strong tropical storms over recent decades (Fromm, 2023), forcing thousands to migrate to avoid starvation and unsafe drinking water (OHCHR, 2023).      

In Guatemala, drought affects 70% of its territory, affecting the poorest 54% of the population. Droughts are also a major cause of half of the chronic malnutrition cases in children under five years of age (UNDRR, 2024). In 2015, drought intensified by El Niño resulted in estimated losses of up to 60% of the country’s maize crop. In 2024, staple crops, including maize and beans, were destroyed across 54,000 hectares in 160 municipalities—approximately 4.7% of the country's 1.16 million hectares devoted to basic-grain production (Trócaire, 2025)—causing losses of nearly US$127 million and impacting approximately 117,000 households (WFP, 2024). Guatemala's maize and bean yields are expected to decline by about 14% by 2050, while sugarcane yields could fall as much as 35% (Plan International, 2026).

In El Salvador, droughts and tropical storms caused considerable harm and losses on agricultural produce and other means of survival (WFP, 2026a). A total of 57,000 hectares of land were impacted, including 22,000 hectares of agricultural land, or roughly 1.8% of the total agricultural area. As a result, 2.7 million quintals of grain and over US$37 million were lost (actalliance, 2024; Geo Factbook, 2026). In 2014, drought affected 82% of fundamental grain crops, nearly two-thirds of the total. In 2015, drought and irregular rainfall destroyed 60% of the maize crop. A delayed wet season in 2018 ruined up to 70% of the first crop and up to 50% of the second crop (Chávez et al., 2023).

Hurricane and Its Impact 

Hurricanes are strong weather events with the potential of causing great destruction. They form over warm ocean waters and are characterized by storm surges, strong winds, and persistent heavy rain. From 1979 to 2017, the number of major hurricanes increased, and minor hurricanes became less common. In addition, researchers project that the destructive effects of cyclones that move inland will see a gradual rise of 50% by 2070 (C2ES, 2026, Quesada-Román et al., 2024). 

Several climate-related factors affect the severity and frequency of hurricanes, including elevated sea surface temperatures, rising sea levels, rainfall, atmospheric change, and the warming of mid-latitude regions. Hurricanes get wetter when seas are warmer because a warmer atmosphere can hold more water vapor. Consequently, storms drop 10 to 15 percent more rain and generate faster winds, causing more damage. Global warming is also expected to increase hurricanes' maximum wind speeds (Sobel & Emanuel, 2025).

Central America has faced a significant number of hurricanes in the past several decades, which resulted in loss of life, destroyed agriculture, infrastructure damage, and migration of people.  

In Honduras, hurricane Fifi in 1978 killed more than 8,000 people, while hurricane Mitch in 1998 caused more than 7,000 deaths (Fox Weather, 2022). Storm Julia destroyed 7,000 hectares of crops, damaged over 400 homes, and left an estimated 180,000 people without sufficient food (UNDP, 2023). Recently, hurricanes Eta and Iota in 2020 caused major flooding which resulted in more than one hundred deaths, isolating 368,901 individuals, and impacting approximately 4.7 million people. This hurricane caused a total loss of over USD 1.86 billion, affected 927 roads, destroyed 62 bridges, and caused agricultural losses of up to 80% (reliefweb, 2021). 

In Guatemala, Hurricane Stan in 2005 resulted in 1513 deaths, injured 386 people, and affected nearly 500,000 individuals, with damages totaling $1 billion (UN News, 2006).

Nicaragua ranked sixth among the top ten countries most exposed and vulnerable to extreme weather events from 1998 to 2017, as per the Global Climate Risk Index. It has experienced numerous severe extreme weather events over the past two decades, including hurricanes Eta and Iota in November 2020, as well as storms Mitch in 1998, Beta in 2005, and Felix in 2007 (reliefweb, 2022).

Coastal erosion

The average sea level has risen more than half a foot worldwide since 1900 and will likely rise another 1 to 2.5 feet this century, increasing the likelihood of coastal flooding and intensifying the effects of storms (C2ES, 2026). Local sea-level rises, powerful waves, and coastal flooding remove rocks, soil, or sand to cause coastal erosion. 

Coastal erosion is typically linked to flooding hazards, hurricanes, windstorms, tsunamis, and storm surges, and it can be intensified by human-induced events, such as construction of dams, mangrove degradation, land use changes, shoreline construction, and dredging (Barrantes-Castillo & Ortega-Otárola, 2023; U.S. Climate, 2026). Moreover, many people obtain their drinking water from wells that they have dug themselves, which are unsafe for consumption due to contamination and salinization (Amnesty International, 2026).

There was an approximate 14,000 km² net coastal land loss between 1984 and 2015. Of the world's sandy beaches, 24% are permanently eroding at more than 0.5 m/y, and 16% at greater than 1 m/y. In Central America, 13% of Costa Rica's shoreline faced mild to severe coastal erosion, while over fifty percent of the coastline experienced accretion (Barrantes-Castillo & Ortega-Otárola, 2023).

Meanwhile, the Cedeño shoreline on Honduras's Pacific coast has receded by over 135 meters, progressing at over six meters annually from 2004 to 2026.

Despite contributing less than 0.2% of global carbon emissions, the CADC region contains a high burden of climate-related hazards. In 2024, Honduras and El Salvador contributed approximately 0.034% and 0.023%, respectively, of global territorial CO₂ emissions, representing only about 0.057% combined (Global Carbon Atlas, 2024). Extreme weather conditions, irregular rainfall patterns, deforestation, and elevated temperatures continue to disrupt livelihoods and worsen food insecurity.

Figure 2

Figure 2. Contribution of Central American Dry Corridor countries (El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua) to global carbon emissions (Global Carbon Atlas, 2024). 

Climate Change and Migration

Climate-related disruptions, including drought and hurricanes, as well as lack of economic opportunities and elevated levels of violence in the Northern Triangle countries (Guatemala, El Salvador, and Honduras), are significant factors contributing to migration and displacement. The World Food Program estimates that the number of migrants from the CADC increased approximately fivefold between 2010 and 2015, with over a third identifying extreme weather as their main reason for migration (Depsky & Pons, 2021). Migration from the CADC is connected with regional food insecurity and extreme climate. Due to the challenging circumstances, 8% of households in the Dry Corridor, many of whom were small-scale farmers, planned to migrate in 2019 (Dahr et al., 2026). 

Climate hazard-related migration is exacerbated by socioeconomic factors and inadequate infrastructure, including government corruption. A World Bank analysis highlighted three classic push factors for migration: (i) limited economic prospects and inadequate living standards; (ii) natural disasters, typically connected to climate change; and (iii) violence (World Bank, 2022). As per the United Nations Refugee Agency, violence had internally displaced at least 71,500 Salvadorans and 247,000 Hondurans in 2018 (CRS, 2024). Also, Honduras had 247,090 internally displaced individuals due to violence and crime, food shortages, and a lack of opportunities, with climate change playing a larger role (World Bank, 2022). Overall, about 692,000 individuals left the Northern Triangle of Central America in 2019, with 113,000 in 2020 and 521,000 in 2021; the annual average migration is 407,000 (Fig. 3) (CRS, 2024). 

These extreme environmental events and socioeconomic issues are influencing migration decisions, with many Central Americans most likely to migrate to the U.S. In FY2021 alone, U.S. Customs and Border Protection reported over 1.7 million of total encounters at the U.S. southern border, marking the highest number in two decades. While this number includes individuals from at least 121 countries, approximately 43 percent were from Central America (Council of Foreign Relations, 2022). The US receives the most asylum applications, with over 729,100 in the first half of 2024. By mid-2024, 1 in 10 new US applications were from Honduras (5%), Guatemala (4%), and El Salvador (2%) (UNHCR, 2024). The number of combined encounters increased from about 39,000 in 2011 to 352,000 in 2024, an almost ninefold increase.

On the other hand, the Trump administration’s massive immigration crackdowns target largely climate-vulnerable countries. For example, the temporary protected status of Honduran nationals was revoked to make them vulnerable for deportation (Guardian, 2026). Consequently, the crackdowns have significantly reduced migration from Central America. Return migration, which includes tens of thousands of deportees, has grown due to worsening US conditions (MPI, 2026).

Figure 3

Figure 3. U.S. Border Patrol Encounters with Guatemalan, Honduran, and Salvadoran Nationals at the Southwest Border: FY2011-FY2024.

What is being done?

The Biden Administration redirected U.S. government efforts to consider climate change issues as potential drivers of regional displacement (Council on Foreign Relations, 2022). It developed a strategy to address the root causes of migration in Central America, such as long-term socioeconomic, security, and governance challenges. The strategy proposes allocating $4.0 billion and expanding U.S. assistance programs in the region. 

Apart from the U.S., at the 57th Ordinary Meeting of the Heads of State and Government of the Central American Integration System (SICA), five investment notes were offered on the following topics: Agricultural zoning for climate risk, digital soil mapping, enhancing the national innovation, development, and research institute, as well as MSMEs and the digital ecosystem, and integrating water solutions (FAO, 2023). The total investment for this program was 311 million USD, with estimated direct and indirect beneficiaries of 545,000 and 2,463,300, respectively (SICA, 2023). The restoration initiative was also recognized under the United Nations Decade on Ecosystem Restoration 2021–2030 with the aim of recovery and improvement of productive ecosystems and strengthening the resilience of land and communities in the region (UN, 2026).

Recent strict immigration policies by the Trump administration threaten to leave these migrants unprotected from climate disaster and place them at risk of being returned to countries while their asylum claims are still pending (Guardian, 2026). 

Conclusion

Tens of thousands of migrants from Central America who reached the U.S. or other destinations were repeatedly affected by hurricanes, floods, and droughts. Although multiple factors influence people's decisions to relocate, it is essential to recognize how climate change is influencing the frequency and intensity of natural disasters that force people to leave their countries. The Northern Triangle's governments have faced significant challenges in addressing the region's socioeconomic and security conditions, as well as in responding to natural disasters (CRS, 2024).

While future droughts are expected to be more intense, prolonged, and common than those of the past few decades, the likelihood of droughts can be mitigated through strong reductions in emissions of greenhouse gases (Ault, 2020). Strengthening drought monitoring and early warning systems could assist predict migratory pressures months in advance. Access to climatic information, drought-resistant seeds, and social protection in rural CADC areas would help households adapt (Dahr et al., 2026).

Declaration of generative AI and AI-assisted technologies in this article preparation process

During the preparation of this article, the author used OpenAI ChatGPT to assist in identifying literature. No contents of the article were generated through ChatGPT or any other AI services. Additionally, the Quillbot premium version was used to support English language editing and to improve clarity and conciseness of the article. After using these tools/services, the authors carefully reviewed and edited all content as needed and took full responsibility for the content of the published article.

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Glossary

• Accretion – The gradual accumulation of sediment along the shoreline, resulting in land gain.

• Anthropogenic – Originating from or caused by human activities, such as greenhouse gas emissions, deforestation, and land-use change.

• Arid – Very dry and without enough rain for plants

• Asylum - The grant, by a State, of protection on its territory to persons outside their country of nationality or habitual residence, who are fleeing persecution or serious harm or for other reasons.

• Asylum seeker – An asylum-seeker is someone who is seeking international protection 

• Beneficiary– A person or group who receives money, advantages, etc. as a result of something else

• Caribbean Low-Level Jet (CLLJ) – A strong easterly wind current over the Caribbean Sea that transports moisture into Central America and influences regional rainfall patterns.

• Central American Dry Corridor (CADC) – A drought-prone region extending across Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua, characterized by irregular rainfall, prolonged drought, and high agricultural vulnerability.

• Climate change – Long-term changes in temperature, precipitation, and weather patterns primarily caused by human-induced greenhouse gas emissions.

• Climate variability – Natural fluctuations in climate conditions, such as changes in rainfall and temperature, occurring over months, years, or decades.

• Climate-vulnerable - Climate vulnerability refers to the susceptibility of human, built, and natural systems to be affected by the adverse effects of climate change, based on their exposure to climate hazards, sensitivity to these hazards, and capacity to adapt or cope with the impacts of them.

• Coastal erosion – The loss of land along coastlines caused by waves, storm surges, sea-level rise, and human activities.

• Consecutive - Events, numbers, etc. follow one after another without an interruption

• Contingent - Depending on something else in the future in order to happen

• Correlated - If two or more facts, numbers, etc. correlate or are correlated, there is a relationship between them

• Deforestation - Deforestation is the intentional clearing of forested land

• Depletes - To reduce something in size or amount

• Disproportionate - Too large or too small in comparison to something else

• Displacement – The forced movement of people from their homes due to disasters, conflict, or other threats.

• Dredging - To remove unwanted things from the bottom of a river, lake, etc. using a boat or special device

• Drought – A prolonged period of below-average rainfall that results in water shortages, reduced crop production, and environmental stress.

• Ecosystem - An ecosystem is a geographic area where plants, animals, and other organisms, as well as weather and landscapes, work together to form a bubble of life.

• El Niño – A natural climate phenomenon characterized by unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, often causing drought in Central America.

• Erosion - Erosion is the geological process in which earthen materials are worn away and transported by natural forces such as wind or water.

• Exacerbated - To make something that is already bad even worse

• Food insecurity – A condition in which people lack reliable access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food.

• Greenhouse gases (GHGs) – Atmospheric gases, including carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄), and nitrous oxide (N₂O), that trap heat and contribute to global warming.

• Governance - The act or process of governing or overseeing the control and direction of something

• Hurricane – A tropical cyclone with winds of 74 miles (119 kilometers) per hour or greater that is usually accompanied by rain, thunder, and lightning, and that sometimes moves into temperate latitudes 

• Jet stream - The jet stream is a fast, narrow current of air flowing from west to east that encircles the globe 

• Magnitude - great size or extent

• Malnutrition - Malnutrition refers to deficiencies, excesses, or imbalances in a person’s intake of energy and/or nutrients.

• Mean Annual Precipitation (MAP) – The average total amount of precipitation received at a location over one year.

• Migration – The movement of people from one location to another, either within a country (internal migration) or across international borders.

• Precipitation – Any form of water, including rain, snow, sleet, or hail, that falls from the atmosphere to the Earth's surface.

• Prolonged - Continuing for a long time

• Repercussions - The effect that an action, event, or decision has on something, especially a bad effect

• Salinization - The process by which a nonsaline soil becomes saline, as by the irrigation of land with brackish water.

• Sea-level rise – The long-term increase in the average level of the world's oceans caused by thermal expansion of seawater and melting glaciers and ice sheets.

• Socioeconomic - Related to the differences between groups of people caused mainly by their financial situation

• Soil degradation - Soil degradation is defined as a change in soil health status resulting in a diminished capacity of the ecosystem to provide goods and services for its beneficiaries

• Storm surge – An abnormal rise in sea level generated by a hurricane or other intense storm, often causing severe coastal flooding.

• Tropical cyclone – A rotating low-pressure weather system that forms over warm tropical oceans. Hurricanes are a type of tropical cyclone.

• Unprecedented - Never having happened or existed in the past

• Variability - The quality or fact of being variable

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