How Shrinking Refugee Funding Threatens Human Rights and Social Cohesion in the East and Horn of Africa

Author: Ronald Nsubuga, MS

October 23, 2025

Somali women and children stand outside temporary tents in the Dagahaley refugee camp near the Kenya-Somalia border. [Image credit: UNICEF/Kate Holt]

Introduction

The East and Horn of Africa region has for decades hosted millions of refugees. As of December 2024, the region was sheltering over 5 million people fleeing all sorts of instabilities, such as conflicts, catastrophic climate emergencies, and political chaos from countries including South Sudan, Somalia, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (Office of the High Commissioner for Refugees [UNHCR], 2024). Traditionally, the global response has been guided by the concept of burden-sharing, and humanitarian financing makes up the bulk of support. But a widening gap between needs and resources is creating a dangerous situation (Mishra, 2025). This article argues that the persistent shortage of refugee funding is not just a financial deficit; it is a public declaration of sliding standards in human rights and a forceful threat to social solidarity among refugees and their host communities. Examining trends and consequences, this analysis concludes with urgent policy imperatives to reverse this crisis.

Refugee Influx and Funding Trends

The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD, 2025) projects a 9 to 17 percent drop in official development assistance (ODA) in 2025, and the outlook beyond 2025 remains highly uncertain. This is driven by cuts by major donor governments, including the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom, and France, whose contributions account for two-thirds of total ODA received by countries in sub-Saharan Africa, including the East and Horn of Africa, thus causing a major shock to international development co-operation and heavily affecting humanitarian response, with refugee assistance being no exception.

According to Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), the East and

Horn of Africa and the Great Lakes region hosted around 5.4 million refugees and asylum seekers and 18.8 million internally displaced people by mid-2024, with Uganda, Sudan (without accounting for the exacerbated crisis in 2025), Ethiopia, and Kenya among the top hosts globally (USA for UNHCR, 2025). Despite the surge in forced displacements, there is a significant funding shortfall; for instance, UNHCR’s regional funding appeal consistently receives less than 40% of required operational funds (UNHCR, 2024). This trend is exacerbated by competing global crises and donor fatigue (UNHCR, 2023). United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UN OCHA, 2025) notes that underfunding is forcing a scale back on operations with real human costs. This chronic underfunding shifts the immense financial and social burden onto host countries in the region, whose own resources are often already stretched thin.

Human Rights Concerns Under Funding Constraints

Insufficient funding directly imperils the fundamental human rights of refugees, as guaranteed under international law, such as the 1951 Refugee Convention. The acute funding shortfall significantly jeopardizes the ability to respond to refugee crises leaving millions of forcibly displaced and stateless people without critical support, including the:

• Right to food: Food ration cuts ranging from 30 to 70 percent of recommended daily intake to refugees in camps and, at worst, suspension of nutrition services, are leading to increasing rates of malnutrition, negative coping strategies, and increased domestic violence (ECHO, 2024; Lutta, 2025). Acute malnutrition levels continue to rise as a result of aid cuts in Ethiopia, South Sudan, and Sudan (UNHCR, 2025; UNICEF, 2025; UNICEF, 2024).

• Right to health: The current humanitarian funding crisis, exacerbated by declining health spending in host countries, is affecting the scope and quality of public health and nutrition programmes for refugees and host communities, disrupting access to essential services and increasing the risk of disease outbreaks, untreated chronic conditions, and mental health issues (UN, 2025). Health facilities face medicine shortages and health staff attrition, leading to untreated illnesses and rising maternal mortality (UNHCR, 2025). Mental health and psychosocial support services, crucial for trauma recovery, are often the first to be cut (Humanitarian Action, 2025). OECD (2025) highlights that 25% of ODA received by countries in sub-Saharan countries caters to health, and countries most affected by funding cuts to health include Kenya, Mozambique, Uganda, South Africa, and Tanzania.

• Right to education: The recent cuts to humanitarian and development aid pose a great risk to hard-won progress in refugee education (UNICEF, 2025; UNHCR, 2025). UNICEF (2025) estimates that 6 million more children risk being out of school by the end of 2026, 30 percent of them in humanitarian settings. The cuts are looming over the already existing precarious situation of overcrowded classrooms, lack of teachers, and inability to cover school fees, forcing children, especially girls, to drop out, jeopardizing their future and violating their right to education (Human Right Watch, 2022). ODA for education is expected to fall by 24% from 2023, and in some developing countries, the portion will reduce by almost 10 percent of their national budget for education, which is forcing aid agencies to reduce even education assistance for crisis-affected children, including refugees in countries like South Sudan, Somalia, Ethiopia, Uganda, and Rwanda, among others (Chironda, 2025; Geneva Global Hub for Education in Emergencies, 2025).

• Right to non-discrimination, equality, and the dignity of all people: Interventions promoting self-reliance of refugees and equitable access to social services are drastically affected by funding cuts causing tension with host communities and posing a risk to peaceful co-existence. Limited partners with constrained budgets do not typically prioritize funding activities that strengthen social cohesion. This poses a risk to the stability of refugees and host communities due to competition for resources (Noack, 2020). For instance, the recent cuts to food rations in Uganda escalated social tensions between refugees and host communities over fights for food and increases in theft cases and caused restlessness in the settlement camp and the community (Namatovu, 2025; NGO Refugee Group, 2025).

Impact on Host Communities and Social Cohesion

Host communities, often living in poverty themselves, bear the indirect brunt of funding cuts. Reduced aid fuels competition over scarce resources like water, firewood, grazing land, and overstretched health and education services (IGAD, 2023). This scarcity breeds resentment, as host populations perceive refugees as receiving diminished but still preferential support. This perception, however misplaced, is a potent catalyst for social tension, discrimination, and sometimes conflict, undoing years of careful coexistence-building efforts. The social contract between hosts, refugees, and aid agencies is thus eroded, threatening regional stability.

It is noteworthy that although funding cuts will deepen existing issues and potentially create new challenges, the refugee-host relationships vary significantly across the East and Horn of Africa region as reception varies due to geographical differences and demographic settings. The World Bank (2022) highlights that refugee host communities have tended to be far more welcoming in Uganda as compared to Ethiopia and Kenya. The same report points out that Uganda allows refugees the right to work and freedom of movement whereas Kenya does not, and Ethiopia has gradually started to expand socioeconomic rights for refugees. Additionally, urban refugees interact with host communities; for example, Kampala, Uganda accommodates diverse refugees from Somalia, Eritrea, Congo, Ethiopia among other countries that co-reside with Ugandans in areas of Kansanga, Kabalagala, Kisenyi, Nsambya, among others.

Policy and Strategic Implications

The current model of short-term humanitarian appeals is failing. The funding crisis demands a strategic shift from emergency response to a development-oriented approach that supports both refugees and hosts. The World Bank (2017) emphasises leveraging development financing and the Global Compact on Refugees’ (UN, 2018) model for promoting self-reliance as critical frameworks. Policies must focus on inclusive national service delivery, granting refugees the right to work and move freely, and investing in local economic development to turn short-term costs into long-term gains for all.

Conclusion and Recommendations

Cutting refugee funding is a bludgeoning of human dignity and a recipe for instability. Protecting rights and social cohesion is not just a moral imperative but a strategic necessity for regional security and development. In order to respond to this, policy-makers throughout the East and Horn of Africa need to take the following policy imperatives into account:

• Diversification of sources of funds needs to be given thought by governments, intergovernmental organizations, and other collaborators. For instance, donors need to explore avenues other than traditional humanitarian appeals to include blended finance and multi-year, flexible funding to support national inclusion plans.

• Refugee host governments supported by donors need to have policies that formally integrate refugees into national health, education, and labor systems, as Uganda’s proactive response demonstrates. Governments and development stakeholders need to step up investment in resilience and development programmes directly targeting refugee-hosting districts to build services and economic opportunities for all.

• Host governments should also augment community-oriented approaches - such as peer counseling and social enterprises - to build local resilience and capacity, including strategies for financing improvements and requesting integration into national health systems, coordination between organizations, and exploring innovative models of financing.

• Donors and governments should enhance data collection on the socioeconomic impacts of funding gaps to effectively advocate for resources and align interventions.

• Governments and development partners can explore concessional and non-concessional financing and instruments to counter ODA associated risks through strengthening partnerships with bilateral and multilateral providers, philanthropies, civil society, and the private sector.

Finally, intergovernmental organizations and development partners will have to invest heavily in strategic peace building activities addressing the root causes of forced migration and regional conflict. These projects can include advancing regional peace and security through facilitation of dialogue, reconciliation, and trauma healing among conflict-affected communities; improving regional programmes in governance, rule of law, democratic systems and expanding civic space and engagement; campaigning programmes that allow communities to evolve with climate-resilient agriculture, water management, and alternative livelihoods in regions mainly affected by climate-induced displacements.

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Glossary

• Asylum seeker: Someone who intends to seek or is awaiting a decision on their request for international protection.

• Blended finance: An innovative financial approach that combines public and private capital to address development challenges in developing countries.

• Burden-sharing: The distribution of responsibilities and costs of development assistance more equitably among stakeholders such as donor countries, recipient countries, international organizations and the private sector.

• Donor fatigue: A situation where donors become less willing to contribute to charitable causes due to being overwhelmed by the frequency and volume of donation requests.

• East and Horn of Africa: In the context of this article, the region constitutes countries in Eastern Africa and Horn of Africa including Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, South Sudan, Democratic Republic of Congo, Ethiopia, Somalia, Djibouti, and Eritrea.

• Global Compact on Refugees: A framework for more predictable and equitable responsibility-sharing, recognizing that a sustainable solution to refugee situations cannot be achieved without international cooperation. 

• Host communities: These communities - whether camps or towns or rural areas - are comprised of local populations and social structures that receive, accommodate, and interact with refugee populations.

• Humanitarian-Development-Peace Nexus: A coherent approach that strives to enhance the coordination and collaboration of humanitarian, development and peace actions to address needs of people in fragile and conflict affected areas.

• Internally displaced people: People who have been forced to flee their homes by conflict, violence, persecution or disasters but have not crossed an international border and remain within their own country.

• Negative Coping Strategies: Harmful actions that individuals resort to in order to survive a crisis, such as selling assets, taking children out of school, or engaging in exploitative work.

• Official Development Assistance (ODA): Government aid that promotes and specifically targets the economic development and welfare of developing countries.

• Refugees: People who have fled their countries to escape conflict, violence, or persecution and have sought safety in another country.

• 1951 Refugee Convention: This convention defines the term refugee and outlines their rights and the international standards of treatment for their protection.

• Self-reliance: The ability of people, households or communities to meet their essential needs and enjoy social and economic rights in a sustainable and dignified manner.

• Social Cohesion: The willingness of members of a society to cooperate with each other to survive and prosper. In this context, it refers to peaceful and collaborative relations between refugees and host communities.

• UN OCHA: United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, coordinates emergency response to save lives and protect people in humanitarian crises.

• UNHCR: Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, leads and coordinates international efforts to protect refugees and resolve refugee problems globally.

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