Tigray on the Brink: Fears Grow Over Possible Resurgence of Conflict

Author: Sibusiso Gugushe

September 6, 2025

HRRC condemns the ongoing atrocities and systematic violence committed against civilians in Tigray, including mass displacement, sexual violence, and looting, which have left countless survivors traumatized and without homes. These grave abuses—primarily carried out by Eritrean forces, with involvement from Ethiopian government troops and allied militias—amount to crimes against humanity and blatant violations of international law.

Former Tigrayan fighters wounded in the recent war wait to be tended to at the Ortho-Physiotherapy Centre in Mekelle in the Tigray region of northern Ethiopia on February 14, 2025 [Image credit: Amanuel Birhane/AP Photo]

In early November 2020, innocent civilians were massacred and thousands of women were raped by the Amhara militias in Western Tigray, Ethiopia—as a result, many occupants were forced to flee across the Tekeze River in Sudanese territory. Today, five years later, many of those people are stuck in refugee camps, hungry and ill, with no hope of returning home as tensions between the Ethiopian Federal Government, Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), and now Eritrea have skyrocketed. According to sources at Al Jazeera, the fragile peace deal signed in November 2022 between the TPLF and Ethiopia’s federal government helped end the conflict, but it hasn’t resolved the deeper issues. Now, experts are most concerned about the growing hostility between Ethiopia and its neighbor, Eritrea—a development they see as especially dangerous.

For context, conflict imploded in Tigray back in November 2020, following an attack by the Ethiopian army on Tigrayan forces who had taken control of the military headquarters in Mekelle, the capital of the Tigray region in northern Ethiopia. The crux of the matter is rooted in a long-standing power struggle between different ethnic groups within Ethiopia’s federal system. For nearly 30 years, the TPLF held significant power in the country’s government. That changed in 2018 when widespread protests led to the rise of a new prime minister, Abiy Ahmed. The TPLF refused to join Abiy’s new ruling party, which pushed them out of the federal government.

Abiy also signed a peace deal with Eritrea, ending years of border conflict—a move that upset Tigray leaders who had fought bitterly with Eritrea in the past. Abiy introduced reforms that the TPLF saw as a threat to Ethiopia’s system of ethnic-based federalism. Tensions escalated further when the TPLF held its own regional elections in September 2020, defying a nationwide delay due to COVID-19. This sparked a full-blown civil war, with fighters from the Ethiopian army, Eritrea, and nearby regions joining the conflict. All sides have been accused of blocking humanitarian aid and committing brutal attacks against civilians, including children.

Since then, the Eritrean government has become increasingly disruptive as a response to their exclusion from the Pretoria Agreement. In an investigative report released on June 30, 2025 by Sentry, evidence revealed that the Eritrean Defense Forces (EDF) participated in and directed large-scale looting operations during and after the fighting in Tigray. Gold, artifacts, and humans were trafficked alongside such atrocities as gang rape, exploitation, abduction, and mutilation. The EDF caused unprecedented levels of economic damage and theft in northern Tigray, especially in late 2020 and early 2021. Following meticulous preparation prior to the foray into Tigray, the looting was coordinated and calculated to capture as much riches as possible while also causing the most severe harm to the economy in order to leave a lasting legacy. By 2024, the situation in Tigray had changed permanently. Some areas of Tigray remained under the control of the EDF, including several regions that had been officially approved for exploration by the federal government's Ministry of Mining in 2023 and 2024. As a result, the competition for gold became more complicated and violent. The Tigray Land and Mining Bureau reported that around $75 to $80 million USD worth of gold was produced annually and sent to the black market.

Meanwhile, tensions in Tigray have worsened since late August, as the TPLF set up its own parallel government and pushed several officials from the Tigray Interim Administration to resign. The move came after the National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) rejected the TPLF’s request to be reinstated as a legal political party. Analysts say the Pretoria Agreement—signed in 2022 to end the civil war—has so far failed to bring lasting stability to the region. Failure to uphold the 2022 peace agreement and implement the necessary policy changes, coupled with the fractional turmoil taking place within the coalition, as well as Eritrea’s militant tactics, have created a certain chilling ambience, one reminiscent of the chaos that saw many lives lost and homes burned to the ground non-stop for two years. 

The above mentioned factors have left women and children vulnerable to sexual assault from the troops. Detailed accounts from survivors, reported collectively by medical workers from Physicians for Human Rights (PHR) and the Organization for Justice and Accountability in the Horn of Africa (OJAH), disclose that most of the sexual violence in Tigray was carried out by Eritrean soldiers who were fighting alongside the Ethiopian government. Other groups allegedly involved included Ethiopia’s national army, the Amhara Special Forces, and the Fano militia. The analysis includes 515 medical records, over 600 surveys of health professionals, and interviews with community leaders, nurses, physicians, and psychiatrists. The research, which builds on the results of a 2023 report, "confirms that crimes against humanity related to sexual and reproductive violence, especially against women and girls, including the crime of forced pregnancy, have been committed in Tigray." This is just a  glimpse of the ongoing humanitarian crisis, one of the many byproducts birthed by the tussle in Tigray.

---

Glossary

• Ambience: the special atmosphere, character, or mood of a place.

• Black Market: trade that is against government controls (as of prices or rationing).

• Blatantly: (of bad behaviour) done openly and unashamedly.

• Brink: the edge or verge of something, often a steep place like a cliff, and figuratively, it refers to a critical or extreme point.

• Brutal: very harsh and unpleasant

• Byproduct:  refers to something that results from an event or situation as an unplanned consequence.

• Crux: the most important, difficult, or central point of a problem, issue, or argument.

• Exclusion: leaving someone or something our of something.

• Exploitation: being forced into doing something that you don't want to do for someone else's gain.

• Factions: small, organized group within a larger organization or body that has different ideas or goals, often opposing the main group's views.

• Foray: sudden attack into enemy territory, especially to obtain something

• Fractional: of, relating to, or being a fraction

• Hostility: state of unfriendliness or aggressive behavior towards someone or something, characterized by negative feelings or  ill will

• Federalism: system of government where power is divided and shared between a national government and smaller regional (state or local) governments.

• Looting: act of stealing valuable things from a place.

• Militia: a group of people.

• Mutilation:  act or instance of destroying, removing, or severely damaging a limb or other body part of a person or animal.

• Parallel: (of lines, planes, or surfaces) side by side and having the same distance continuously between them.

• Reconcile: to restore to friendship or harmony 

• Reminiscent: to remind one of something.

• Resurgence: the act of rising again into life, activity, or notice after a period of decline.

• Refugee: a person who has been forced to flee their country due to war or violence

• Skyrocketed: (of a price, rate, or amount) increase very quickly.

• Tactic: specific, planned action or method used to achieve a short-term or immediate goal

• Trafficking: the act of recruiting, transporting, transferring, harboring, or receiving individuals through force, fraud, or coercion for the purpose of exploitation.

• Turmoil: a state of confusion, disorder, uncertainty, or great anxiety

• Tussle:  to fight or struggle with someone by grabbing or pushing.

• Unprecedented: never done or known before.

• Violence: use of physical force so as to abuse, damage, or destroy.