Authoritarian Longevity in Africa: Implications for Democracy, Human Rights, and Stability

Author: Michael Masrie

November 5, 2025

Paul Biya [Image credit: Lintao Zhang/Getty Images]

Introduction

When Paul Biya ruled Cameroon as Prime Minister in 1975 and ascended to the presidency in 1982, the world was entrenched in Cold War tensions, the Berlin Wall divided East from West, and microcomputers were nascent. Today—50 years later—Biya leads among Africa’s longest-serving heads of state, followed by Equatorial Guinea’s Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo (45 years), Iran’s Ali Khamenei (43 years), and Eritrea’s Isaias Afwerki (32 years), among others. These tenures, as enumerated by Statista¹, are not academic exercises in historical trivia; they are signs of deeply rooted implications for administration, human rights, local geopolitics, and economic development.

The prevailing "stability equals longevity" narrative helps to cover up structural weakness and enables regimes to suppress democratic openings and opposition until a leadership vacuum leads to instability. As democracy expert Nic Cheeseman warns, "Leaders who rule through entrenchment are oftentimes planting mines under their own states"². The price of such longevity is usually systematic repression, economic distortion, regional instability, and low legitimacy.

This article examines the African phenomenon of authoritarian longevity using the cases of Paul Biya, Teodoro Obiang, and Isaias Afwerki. It examines the impact of their rule on democracy, human rights, economic prosperity, and regional security, and subsequently the broader role of African and international institutions.

The Illusion of Stability

Long-term leaders tend to employ the discourse of stability in order to justify longer terms in office. "Continuity," they argue, is comforting to investors, assuring national stability, and preventing social collapse. But this concept of stability is cosmetic.

Eritrea's Isaias Afwerki encapsulated this tale when he declared in 2009 that Eritrea was "not in a hurry to adopt a Western-style democracy," claiming the nation required a different path³. Thirty-three years on, that path has provided neither stability nor wealth, but rather militarization of society; indefinite postponement of elections, and silencing of the media.

Such alleged stability masks systemic vulnerability. By eliminating alternation mechanisms—i.e., elections, judicial review, or institutional succession planning—bureaucratic regimes ensure that leadership succession represents a potential rupture. This vulnerability surfaces when long-standing leaders die while in office, as was the case with Gabon's Omar Bongo (1967–2009) or Chad's Idriss Déby (1990–2021), whose deaths triggered political crises.

The supposed stability under dictatorship of long tenure conceals the threat of violent replacement, factional strife, and crises of legitimacy when succession becomes unavoidable.

Human Rights Under Long-Term Rule

Eritrea’s Repression

Eritrea, often dubbed “Africa’s North Korea,” exemplifies the high human cost of indefinite authoritarian rule. Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International report systemic human rights violations, including indefinite military conscription reminiscent of forced labor, extrajudicial detentions, and the absence of press freedom⁴^,⁵.

The 1997 constitution has never been implemented. Since 2010, the legislature has been nonfunctional, effectively erasing even symbolic checks on executive power⁶. The state has expanded mass conscription, forcing thousands of secondary school students, including children, into military training at Sawa camp⁷. These practices not only contravene international human rights law but also destroy opportunities for education, family unity, and social mobility.

Eritrea has additionally resisted international oversight. In June 2025, its government sought to terminate the mandate of the UN special rapporteur on human rights, accusing external actors of “interference”⁸. Such resistance illustrates the regime's strategy of remaining barricaded from scrutiny while continuing repression domestically.

Cameroon's Repression

Cameroon is another case where longevity of authoritarianism undermines freedoms and rights. President Biya has entrenched his hold on power through both constitutional manipulation and force. Presidential term limits were eliminated in 2008 through a constitutional amendment, allowing Biya to remain in office indefinitely.

Yaoundé's Kondengui Prison has also become a symbol of repression: overcrowded, notorious for poor conditions, and employed to detain dissidents—including opposition politicians and journalists—ordinarily prosecuted in military tribunals under the country's anti-terrorism law⁹.

Freedom House consistently ranks Cameroon as "Not Free," identifying systematic electoral manipulation, repression of oppositions, and restrictions on a free press¹⁰. Anti-corruption agencies are nominal only, turning against political opponents rather than addressing systemic corruption¹¹.

Economic and Investment Consequences

Autocratic governments have also sought to present themselves as stability providers that are attractive for foreign investors. Yet survival under autocracy typically debilitates institutional confidence and drives out sustainable investment. Many such regimes market themselves as havens of order in regions often marked by volatility, emphasizing centralized decision-making, streamlined approval processes, and guarantees of security for investment projects. 

For instance, some governments establish special economic zones or make high-profile agreements with multi-nationals to signal business-friendly openness. These kinds of interventions don’t deliver the intended results due to lack of openness, legal safeguards, and independence within key institutions, which makes it easy for agreements to be changed or canceled without warning. Rules and regulations tend to shift unpredictably, creating an unstable environment for investors. 

This uncertainty is worsened by the risk of political interference, obstacles in sending profits back home, or pressure to work with underperforming state-owned companies. With little public oversight, there’s also a growing perception that the system is risky and unreliable. According to the World Bank and Transparency International, such environments—marked by weak institutions and high corruption—tend to attract short-term, narrowly focused investments, especially in resource extraction, rather than the long-term capital needed for more inclusive and sustainable development. 

The "stability" façade under autocracy proves to be a superficial one. That also portrays underlying economic and governance vulnerabilities that ultimately chase away true foreign investment.

Eritrea remains sealed to the international economy with no stock exchange, non-convertible currency, and very tight controls on private business. Foreign direct investment is only possible in terms of mining activities, which remain under state control to a large extent¹². Beyond resource extraction, opportunities are few, and entrepreneurs face prevalent restraints.

Cameroon and Equatorial Guinea demonstrate how resources' wealth, in the hands of authoritarian regimes, translates into a means of corruption rather than development. The two countries always find themselves at the bottom of Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index¹³^,¹⁴. Cameroon's COVID-19 relief fund scandal, where leaked audit reports revealed misapplication, illustrated how even foreign aid becomes entrapped in patronage networks¹⁵.

These conditions hinder the diversification of economies, heighten inequality, and bring about public disillusionment. They also contribute to cycles of instability as economic exclusion gives rise to grievances that authoritarian governments quash rather than redress.

Democratic Deficit and Regional Institutions

The Addis Ababa-based African Union (AU) has long been self-proclaimed as having a commitment to democracy, governance, and human rights. Its own history of authoritarian consolidation is, however, spotty. The AU has sanctioned military coups in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger but it has consistently failed to address constitutional manipulation or indefinite presidencies by civilian leaders.

As Dr. Ebere Okonkwo of the Centre for Democracy and Development (CDD) observes, “If the AU cannot draw red lines on basic governance norms, it weakens its influence”¹⁶. Such inconsistency erodes the authority of continental institutions and creates a culture whereby authoritarian leaders are encouraged.

On the contrary, ECOWAS has at times held firm, though even its track record is spotty. Regardless, the twin standard—excusing "constitutional coups" but condemning military ones—perpetuates authoritarian reigns. Without credible enforcement, regional bodies are at risk of becoming obsolete.

Regional Stability and Geopolitical Challenges

The consequences of extensive authoritarianism extend beyond state repression. Autocrats regularly use regional destabilization as a tool for ensuring their own survival. Eritrea provides a striking example: Afwerki’s regime supported Ethiopian federal forces in the Tigray conflict, a war marked by allegations of war crimes, including mass atrocities and forced displacement¹⁷.

When long-serving leaders exit the stage without clear succession mechanisms, the result is instability. The eventual departure of leaders such as Biya, Obiang, or Afwerki could lead to risky power vacuums. Lacking strong institutions, competing elites may fight over control and citizens—denied any meaningful political voice for so long—may resort to protest or violence¹⁸.

Authoritarian resilience thus not only erodes local sovereignty but also fuels local instability with spillover consequences for migration, conflict, and humanitarian crises.

The Alternative: Democratic Resilience

As authoritarian entrenchment prevails in most African nations, counterexamples show that democratic renewal is possible. Ghana, Kenya, and Senegal are examples of how institutions based on legitimacy and not longevity can be both politically stable and lead to economic growth.

Ghana has consolidated multiparty democracy, with unproblematic changes of government and a judicial system prepared to check executive abuses. Its political environment has attracted huge volumes of foreign investment and increased international acceptability.

Pluralism has allowed Kenya to have a lively technology sector, underpinned by the "Silicon Savannah" of Nairobi. Despite contentious elections, the judiciary and the media are strong enough to keep the system fairly open.

Senegal is one of the most stable democracies in West Africa, endowed with a vibrant civil society and periodic elections. In spite of persisting problems, institutional strength has enabled the country to be structurally intact.

These instances indicate that stability and growth are not inconsistent with democracy. On the contrary, it is a government founded on legitimacy, participation, and accountability that produces resilience.

Time is Running Out

The 2025 roster of long-ruling leaders is more than a historical footnote—it is a warning. Institutional decay, normalized oppression, and economic stagnation are what the future holds for nations that embrace indefinite rule.

Democracy, civil liberties, and accountable governance are not neocolonial impositions; they are prerequisites for resilience. As Václav Havel, a former Czech statesman, observed, “the tragedy… is not that he knows less and less…but that it bothers him less and less.” This describes well the tragedy of authoritarian regimes: normalization dulls resistance to repression. Now, institutions at the regional level, global stakeholders, and African societies must reinvest in institutions—and not individuals—lest the cost of delay becomes too costly to bear. The message is clear: authoritarian perseverance promises stability but promises vulnerability. Its cost is borne by citizens whose freedoms are curtailed, by societies deprived, and by regions destabilized. Unless deflected, the cost will not only be paid in terms of political immobilism but in cycles of crisis throughout the continent.

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Glossary

• Authoritarian Longevity: The extended rule of a leader or regime beyond typical democratic limits, often maintained through constitutional manipulation, suppression of dissent, and elimination of term limits.

• Civil Liberties: Fundamental freedoms such as expression, assembly, and association, which are protected in democracies but often restricted under authoritarian regimes.

• Constitutional Manipulation: The alteration or suspension of constitutional rules, such as term limits, to entrench leaders in power and limit democratic transitions.

• Democratic Deficit: A condition where democratic structures exist but fail to operate effectively, resulting in limited citizen participation, weak accountability, and suppressed opposition.

• Eritrea’s Sawa Camp: A state-run facility for mandatory military training, where Eritrean youth, including minors, are conscripted into indefinite national service.

• Foreign Direct Investment (FDI): Cross-border investment in which individuals or firms establish or expand business operations in another country, often limited in authoritarian states due to corruption and political risk.

• Fragility (Political): The vulnerability of state institutions to instability, conflict, or collapse, particularly when leaders exit without clear succession mechanisms.

• Freedom House: An international NGO that publishes annual reports measuring political rights and civil liberties worldwide, often cited in assessments of authoritarian regimes.

• Indefinite Conscription: Mandatory and open-ended military or national service imposed by a state, frequently used as a tool for control and forced labor.

• Institutional Decay: The gradual weakening of political, legal, and administrative institutions due to corruption, over-centralization, and lack of democratic accountability.

• Kondengui Prison: A detention facility in Yaoundé, Cameroon, known for overcrowding, poor conditions, and the imprisonment of political dissidents.

• Legitimacy (Political): The recognized and accepted right of a government or leader to govern, often undermined under long-term authoritarian rule.

• Regional Bodies (AU, ECOWAS): Multilateral African institutions that aim to promote democracy, human rights, and regional stability, sometimes criticized for inconsistent enforcement.

• Repression: The systematic suppression of political dissent through censorship, imprisonment, violence, or intimidation by the state.

• Resource Curse: The paradox in which resource-rich countries experience slower economic growth, higher corruption, and weaker democratic institutions due to authoritarian control of resources.

• “Stability Equals Longevity” Narrative: A justification by authoritarian leaders claiming that prolonged rule ensures national stability, often masking underlying institutional fragility.

• Succession Vacuum: The instability or conflict that emerges when long-serving leaders leave office without established mechanisms for peaceful transitions of power.

• Transparency International (TI): A global NGO that publishes the Corruption Perceptions Index, ranking countries by perceived levels of corruption.

• “Africa’s North Korea”: A label for Eritrea reflecting its isolation, extreme repression, and highly centralized authoritarian governance.

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References

1. Statista. (2025). Longest-serving world leaders.

2. Cheeseman, N. (2025). Comment on authoritarian entrenchment.

3. Al Jazeera. (2009). Interview with Isaias Afwerki.

4. Human Rights Watch. (2024). World Report 2024: Eritrea.

5. Amnesty International. (2024). Eritrea Report 2024.

6. Human Rights Watch. (2023). World Report 2023: Eritrea.

7. Human Rights Watch. (2024). On conscription of children in Eritrea.

8. Reuters. (2025, June). Eritrea seeks an end to the UN rights mandate.

9. The Guardian. (2025, July). Inside Kondengui prison.

10. Freedom House. (2023). Cameroon: Freedom in the World 2023.

11. Freedom House. (2024). Cameroon: Freedom in the World 2024.

12. African Development Bank. (2025). Investment analysis: Eritrea.

13. Transparency International. (2024). Corruption Perceptions Index 2024.

14. Transparency International. (2025). Equatorial Guinea CPI data.

15. AP News. (2025). Cameroon’s COVID-19 relief fund audit.

16. Okonkwo, E. (2025). African Union credibility and governance.

17. International Crisis Group. (2025). Eritrea’s role in the Tigray war.

18. Crisis Group/analysts. (2025). Succession risks in Africa.